🏃‍♂️💨 Chemicals are winning the industrial marathon: Here's Why.

🏃‍♂️💨 Chemicals are winning the industrial marathon and according to the latest IEA World Energy Outlook, this lead is expected to extend through 2035. But why?

Think of the industrial economy as a marathon: four runners, each with a different stride and stamina.

💉 Chemicals find their rhythm early. They don’t sprint; they pace.

They reach people first: wrapping food safely, keeping water clean, providing soap for hygiene, and delivering vaccines through plastic syringes. By meeting essential needs from the first mile, chemicals grow consistently, in step with GDP.

🧱  Cement runs at a slower cadence.

Cement growth is tied directly to infrastructure cycles (roads, housing, public facilities) which only accelerate once basic consumer needs are met. That means cement demand typically follows GDP with a lag, rising meaningfully only when economies move from subsistence to large-scale construction. When GDP slows, cement slows even more.

🔩 Steel is the powerhouse runner.

Strong, reliable, and indispensable, but weighed down by heavy capital intensity. Steel’s growth correlates with the middle phases of GDP expansion (industrial build-out, machinery, rail, vehicles) activities that scale later in development. Its link to GDP is real but highly cyclical; when economies industrialize, steel surges, but when they mature, growth tapers quickly.

🏎️ Aluminum saves its acceleration for the final stretch.

Lightweight and versatile, aluminum demand grows fastest when incomes rise, and consumers begin buying more electronics, appliances, cars and planes. Its growth profile is tied to the upper layers of GDP per capita; advanced manufacturing, mobility, and technology sectors. Aluminum’s demand slows as economies shift from manufacturing to services.

The data compiled by BIC Advisory Group tells the same story: over time, chemicals continue to widen their lead over other industrial products.

💡 Insight: Chemicals lead because they serve humanity’s essential needs, not its finish-line luxuries.

For petrochemical companies grappling with a steep bottom-of-cycle (ExxonMobil Chemical, LyondellBasell, Chevron Phillips Chemical Company, Borealis, SABIC, Westlake, Dow, Shell Chemicals), it is worth remembering that the linkage of the underlying products to human well-being is stronger than ever and will continue to support demand for decades to come.