🏃‍♂️💨 Chemicals are winning the industrial marathon and according to the latest IEA World Energy Outlook, this lead is expected to extend through 2035. But why? Think of the industrial economy as a marathon: four runners, each with a different stride and stamina. 💉 Chemicals find their rhythm early. They don’t sprint; they pace. They reach people first: wrapping food safely, keeping water clean, providing soap for hygiene, and delivering vaccines through plastic syringes.

Every cycle tests endurance. This one is separating the sprinters from the triathletes — and only those built for all three legs will still be standing when the market turns. As shown in the chart above,  ExxonMobil Chemical  has pulled into a clear lead, with  Chevron Phillips Chemical Company  and  LyondellBasell  pacing steadily behind.  Dow  and  Shell Chemicals  are losing ground as the cycle grinds on. Winners in petrochemicals aren’t made in the spotlight of one strong

Dow ’s Q3 earnings got Wall Street excited — the stock jumped 13% in a day, adding roughly $2 billion in market cap. Investors clearly saw something they liked. 👉 But is it real recovery... or just a mirage in the desert of this chemical downcycle? 💪 The Positives: “Control the Controllables” Let’s give credit where credit is due. Dow’s leadership did what strong management teams do in tough markets: Cut the dividend early to protect cash. Hit pause on a Mega Capital projec

The world’s richest energy company just put three Saudi chemical projects on hold. It’s not about the money — Aramco can fund anything it wants. It’s about timing. Margins are scraping the bottom… yet projects in Asia are still full speed ahead. So why the sudden pause at home? 🏠 Home turf usually wins — until it doesn’t Building domestically normally has clear advantages: 1️⃣ Capital safety – When the world’s unpredictable, it’s safer to spend close to home. Think return of

Another wave of job cuts has hit Oil & Gas. After  bp ,  Chevron , and   ConocoPhillips  earlier this year,  ExxonMobil  announced ~2,500 layoffs last week. 👉 Regional offices in Calgary, Brussels, and Singapore are being shut down. Retained employees must relocate closer to industrial sites. 📰 The media wasted no time pointing fingers: Europe blamed regulatory complexity. Canada pointed to policy uncertainty and an unfriendly business climate. Singapore stood apart — the c

The chart above shows how U.S. ethane exports have surged from zero just over a decade ago to nearly 10 million tons per year today—with volumes increasingly flowing to America’s fiercest trade rivals overseas. At BIC Advisory Group, we’ve been analyzing what this means for U.S. competitiveness. The key questions: 👉 Is this smart monetization of surplus shale gas? 👉 Or a “cash now, regret later” strategy? Here’s what our analysis shows: This export boom wasn’t crafted as U.

Hundreds of millions in projects from   ExxonMobil ,   Dow ,  Neste   and  Ravago are already on ice. The culprit isn’t technology or investment $ — it’s Brussels’ myopic approach to mass balance accounting. By proposing to exclude molecules that end up in fuel streams, the Commission is setting rules that make most advanced recycling projects uneconomic. ♻️ Two recycling paths, two very different bets: 1) Mechanical Recycling:  flakes → washed → pellets ·       Works with c

Two headlines last week raised eyebrows across the industry: 1)  Dow  has paused its Net-Zero petrochemical project in Alberta for two years; 2)  Shell  is exploring the sale of its Pennsylvania petrochemical plant These are flagship projects built on some of the world’s most advantaged ethane feedstock. If they can’t clear the investment/ownership hurdle, it begs the question: Are new petrochemical projects still viable anywhere in North America? ⛔ Headwinds Are Mounting: 📉

Brazil’s new 9–11 c/lb anti-dumping duties on U.S. & Canadian PE have traders on edge. It sounds like a game-changer — but the reality is more predictable: global trade flows will absorb the shock, just like they always do. 🔎 Fresh analysis from BIC Advisory Group’s released on September 1 in an Executive Brief to clients shows: Braskem gets a ~$225M short-term uplift in profitability. CANUSA PE exports to Brazil don’t “go to zero” — they’ll reroute. First to China, then reb

The big news out of Seoul last week caught many by surprise: 👉 Ten petrochemical companies have agreed to restructure, cutting 2.7–3.7 million tons of ethylene capacity (plus derivatives). This isn’t the first time Korea has gone big on restructuring. Back in 1999, during the Asian financial crisis, government-led consolidation reshaped the industry. The difference today? No financial crisis in sight, just a profitability crisis driven by chronic overcapacity and squeezed ma

INC Diplomats: 5 rounds, no deal. AI: 5 seconds, draft ready. ⚡🤖 The UN’s plastics treaty talks (INC-5) collapsed last week because no one could bridge the gap: 🌍 High Ambition Coalition → cap virgin polymer production 🏭 Producer states → focus on waste and recycling Humans: stalemate. An AI “negotiator”? It might have stitched together something like this: 🔹 A global decline pathway for virgin plastics — peak year in 2028 with a -5% decline thereafter 🔹 Tiered responsib

Understanding the Current Landscape of PE Exports 📊 Fresh analysis from BIC Advisory Group shows that US maritime polyethylene (PE) exports rose 4.8% year-over-year in the first half of 2025 — even as tariff debates dominated the news cycle. The regional picture tells the real story: 🌍 Africa: +47% — the fastest-growing import region for US PE. 🌎 Europe: +16% — a healthy rebound despite policy uncertainty. 🌏 Asia: –8% — April’s US–China trade paralysis is still eviden

The numbers don’t lie. Q2 operating earnings for major petrochemical producers have plunged from 2021–2024 averages. The slide continues into 2025, creating a challenging environment for the polyethylene and polypropylene sectors. Understanding the Current Market Dynamics Oversupply combined with tepid demand has led to margin compression. This situation is not just a temporary setback; it’s a significant concern for businesses in our industry. Belt-tightening and asset sales

When General Stanley McChrystal took command of U.S. Joint Special Operations, he faced a fast, decentralized, and unpredictable enemy. His response? “You can’t control everything in chaos—but you can build a team that thrives in it.” This insight is particularly relevant for today's chemical companies, especially those in the polyethylene and polypropylene sectors. Navigating Complexity in the Chemical Industry Today's chemical companies encounter their own forms of complexi

Just when the market was hoping for signs of a floor, Q2 earnings from  hashtag#Dow ,  hashtag#CPChem , and  hashtag#LYB  delivered a sobering message: the bottom isn’t in yet. 📉 Integrated polyethylene margins slid even further in Q2—especially in North America, where April delivered a particularly rough landing. The damage report: ·       Dow posted negative earnings and free cash flow, triggering a dividend cut to conserve cash (and, perhaps, nerves). ·       CPChem and L

We’re witnessing a wave of chemical plant closures across Europe. For executives navigating this bottom-of-cycle environment—marked by subdued demand and global overcapacity—a critical question must be asked: 👉 Is the European chemical industry structurally viable, or is it time to start reallocating capital elsewhere? In oversupplied commodity markets, cost leadership isn’t optional—it’s existential. That leadership hinges on two pillars: 1.     Feedstock Advantage – compet

This week,  #Univation  announced the next-generation of the UNIPOL™ PE Process platform with its newest world-scale licensed capacity offering of 800,000 tonnes per year (t/y) design. The previous capacity for this platform stood at 650,000 t/y. The Gas Phase technology for making High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) was developed in the 60’s and within a decade expanded to making Linear Low Density Polyethylene (LLDPE). At the time, it was considered a great leap forward over t

Tracing its roots to the invention and commercialization of High-Density  #Polyethylene  and  #Polypropylene  in the 1950’s, Chevron Phillips Chemical (CPChem) was launched as a 50/50 Joint-Venture in 2000 between Chevron U.S.A. and Phillips 66 company. Since inception, CPChem has had much success, self-funding a growing asset base from 6 G$ in 2000 to more than 20 G$ by the end of 2024. Along the way, both partners have indicated that the JV is a prized asset. So why now is

A project executive would rather eat a bag of rusty nails than announce a delay of a multi-billion-dollar mega-project. However, that is what was announced by Dow’s CEO last week as part of the Q1 earnings call. Reason provided was to preserve cash. Along with the project delay, Dow announced an initiative to save cash cost amounting to 300 M$/y in 2025 and an additional 700 M$/y in 2026. A day later, LyondellBasell announced weak Q1 earnings along with its own Cash Improveme

Short Answer: Not directly and not by much Long Story: Unlike polyethylene that trades globally, American made PP tends to trade regionally with 2/3 of US exports going to either Mexico (~ 1 Mta) or Canada (~ 0.5 Mta). China, by contrast, imports only ~ 0.07 Mta of American made PP (Chart below). Therefore, a tariff war between the US and China does not have a material impact on US PP production rates.  What about indirect impacts?  If trade wars result in a global recession,