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đââď¸đ¨ Chemicals are winning the industrial marathon: Here's Why.
đââď¸đ¨ Chemicals are winning the industrial marathon and according to the latest IEA World Energy Outlook, this lead is expected to extend through 2035. But why? Think of the industrial economy as a marathon: four runners, each with a different stride and stamina. đ Chemicals find their rhythm early. They donât sprint; they pace. They reach people first: wrapping food safely, keeping water clean, providing soap for hygiene, and delivering vaccines through plastic syringes.
Dec 18, 20252 min read


đ Not All Competitors Finish the Race â The Petrochemical Triathlon Has Its Early Leader.
Every cycle tests endurance. This one is separating the sprinters from the triathletes â and only those built for all three legs will still be standing when the market turns. As shown in the chart above, ExxonMobil Chemical  has pulled into a clear lead, with Chevron Phillips Chemical Company  and LyondellBasell  pacing steadily behind. Dow  and Shell Chemicals  are losing ground as the cycle grinds on. Winners in petrochemicals arenât made in the spotlight of one strong
Dec 18, 20251 min read


đąÂ Dowâs âGreen Shootsâ â or Just a Mirage?
Dow âs Q3 earnings got Wall Street excited â the stock jumped 13% in a day, adding roughly $2 billion in market cap. Investors clearly saw something they liked. đ But is it real recovery... or just a mirage in the desert of this chemical downcycle? đŞÂ The Positives: âControl the Controllablesâ Letâs give credit where credit is due. Dowâs leadership did what strong management teams do in tough markets: Cut the dividend early to protect cash. Hit pause on a Mega Capital projec
Dec 18, 20252 min read


âĄÂ When Aramco hits pause, everyone should take notice.
The worldâs richest energy company just put three Saudi chemical projects on hold. Itâs not about the money â Aramco can fund anything it wants. Itâs about timing. Margins are scraping the bottom⌠yet projects in Asia are still full speed ahead. So why the sudden pause at home? đ  Home turf usually wins â until it doesnât Building domestically normally has clear advantages: 1ď¸âŁÂ Capital safety â When the worldâs unpredictable, itâs safer to spend close to home. Think return of
Dec 18, 20251 min read


âWhatâs really behind ExxonMobilâs latest layoffs?
Another wave of job cuts has hit Oil & Gas. After bp , Chevron , and  ConocoPhillips  earlier this year, ExxonMobil  announced ~2,500 layoffs last week. đ Regional offices in Calgary, Brussels, and Singapore are being shut down. Retained employees must relocate closer to industrial sites. đ°Â The media wasted no time pointing fingers: Europe blamed regulatory complexity. Canada pointed to policy uncertainty and an unfriendly business climate. Singapore stood apart â the c
Dec 18, 20251 min read


đşđ¸ đ¨đł  Is the U.S. fueling its competitorsâ rise by exporting cheap ethaneâand in the process, giving away its shale gas advantage to the world?Â
The chart above shows how U.S. ethane exports have surged from zero just over a decade ago to nearly 10 million tons per year todayâwith volumes increasingly flowing to Americaâs fiercest trade rivals overseas. At BIC Advisory Group, weâve been analyzing what this means for U.S. competitiveness. The key questions: đ Is this smart monetization of surplus shale gas? đ Or a âcash now, regret laterâ strategy? Hereâs what our analysis shows: This export boom wasnât crafted as U.
Dec 18, 20251 min read


đ Europe may be about to kill Advanced Recycling before it even scales.
Hundreds of millions in projects from  ExxonMobil ,  Dow , Neste  and Ravago are already on ice. The culprit isnât technology or investment $ â itâs Brusselsâ myopic approach to mass balance accounting. By proposing to exclude molecules that end up in fuel streams, the Commission is setting rules that make most advanced recycling projects uneconomic. âťď¸Â Two recycling paths, two very different bets: 1) Mechanical Recycling: flakes â washed â pellets ¡       Works with c
Dec 18, 20252 min read


đ North Americaâs Petrochemical Investment: Losing Steam?
Two headlines last week raised eyebrows across the industry: 1) Dow  has paused its Net-Zero petrochemical project in Alberta for two years; 2) Shell  is exploring the sale of its Pennsylvania petrochemical plant These are flagship projects built on some of the worldâs most advantaged ethane feedstock. If they canât clear the investment/ownership hurdle, it begs the question: Are new petrochemical projects still viable anywhere in North America? â Headwinds Are Mounting: đ
Dec 18, 20251 min read


đ§đˇ From Shock Duties to Market Rebalance
Brazilâs new 9â11 c/lb anti-dumping duties on U.S. & Canadian PE have traders on edge. It sounds like a game-changer â but the reality is more predictable: global trade flows will absorb the shock, just like they always do. đ Fresh analysis from BIC Advisory Groupâs released on September 1 in an Executive Brief to clients shows: Braskem gets a ~$225M short-term uplift in profitability. CANUSA PE exports to Brazil donât âgo to zeroâ â theyâll reroute. First to China, then reb
Dec 18, 20251 min read


đ°đˇÂ Seoul Just Blinked: Is This the First Real Sign of a Chemical Market Reset?
The big news out of Seoul last week caught many by surprise: đ Ten petrochemical companies have agreed to restructure, cutting 2.7â3.7 million tons of ethylene capacity (plus derivatives). This isnât the first time Korea has gone big on restructuring. Back in 1999, during the Asian financial crisis, government-led consolidation reshaped the industry. The difference today? No financial crisis in sight, just a profitability crisis driven by chronic overcapacity and squeezed ma
Dec 18, 20251 min read


UN's Plastic Treaty Talk: AI vs INC Diplomats
INC Diplomats: 5 rounds, no deal. AI: 5 seconds, draft ready. âĄđ¤ The UNâs plastics treaty talks (INC-5) collapsed last week because no one could bridge the gap: đ High Ambition Coalition â cap virgin polymer production đ Producer states â focus on waste and recycling Humans: stalemate. An AI ânegotiatorâ? It might have stitched together something like this: đšÂ A global decline pathway for virgin plastics â peak year in 2028 with a -5% decline thereafter đšÂ Tiered responsib
Dec 18, 20251 min read


Want to Disrupt the Global PE Trade? Youâll Need More Than Tariffs.
Understanding the Current Landscape of PE Exports đ Fresh analysis from BIC Advisory Group shows that US maritime polyethylene (PE) exports rose 4.8% year-over-year in the first half of 2025 â even as tariff debates dominated the news cycle. The regional picture tells the real story: đ Africa: +47% â the fastest-growing import region for US PE. đ Europe: +16% â a healthy rebound despite policy uncertainty. đ Asia: â8% â Aprilâs USâChina trade paralysis is still eviden
Aug 14, 20252 min read


đ From Earnings Slump to Strategic Reset: Navigating the Polyethylene and Polypropylene Landscape
The numbers donât lie. Q2 operating earnings for major petrochemical producers have plunged from 2021â2024 averages. The slide continues into 2025, creating a challenging environment for the polyethylene and polypropylene sectors. Understanding the Current Market Dynamics Oversupply combined with tepid demand has led to margin compression. This situation is not just a temporary setback; itâs a significant concern for businesses in our industry. Belt-tightening and asset sales
Aug 14, 20252 min read


Thriving in Chaos: Strategies for Polyethylene and Polypropylene Businesses
When General Stanley McChrystal took command of U.S. Joint Special Operations, he faced a fast, decentralized, and unpredictable enemy. His response? âYou canât control everything in chaosâbut you can build a team that thrives in it.â This insight is particularly relevant for today's chemical companies, especially those in the polyethylene and polypropylene sectors. Navigating Complexity in the Chemical Industry Today's chemical companies encounter their own forms of complexi
Aug 11, 20252 min read


From Gloom to Doom: Q2 Delivers a Reality Check for the Chemical Sector
Just when the market was hoping for signs of a floor, Q2 earnings from hashtag#Dow , hashtag#CPChem , and hashtag#LYB  delivered a sobering message: the bottom isnât in yet. đ Integrated polyethylene margins slid even further in Q2âespecially in North America, where April delivered a particularly rough landing. The damage report: ¡       Dow posted negative earnings and free cash flow, triggering a dividend cut to conserve cash (and, perhaps, nerves). ¡       CPChem and L
Aug 11, 20251 min read


đť Hold âEm or Fold âEm? A Strategic Question for Europeâs Chemical Industry Executives đť
Weâre witnessing a wave of chemical plant closures across Europe. For executives navigating this bottom-of-cycle environmentâmarked by subdued demand and global overcapacityâa critical question must be asked: đ Is the European chemical industry structurally viable, or is it time to start reallocating capital elsewhere? In oversupplied commodity markets, cost leadership isnât optionalâitâs existential. That leadership hinges on two pillars: 1.     Feedstock Advantage â compet
Jul 15, 20251 min read


Why the Univation announcement on polyethylene line size is a great reason to celebrate process engineers and operators in the polymer industry?
This week, #Univation  announced the next-generation of the UNIPOL⢠PE Process platform with its newest world-scale licensed capacity offering of 800,000 tonnes per year (t/y) design. The previous capacity for this platform stood at 650,000 t/y. The Gas Phase technology for making High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) was developed in the 60âs and within a decade expanded to making Linear Low Density Polyethylene (LLDPE). At the time, it was considered a great leap forward over t
Jun 13, 20251 min read


Why now is a good time for Chevron to acquire the 50% stake in CPChem that it does not already own?
Tracing its roots to the invention and commercialization of High-Density #Polyethylene  and #Polypropylene  in the 1950âs, Chevron Phillips Chemical (CPChem) was launched as a 50/50 Joint-Venture in 2000 between Chevron U.S.A. and Phillips 66 company. Since inception, CPChem has had much success, self-funding a growing asset base from 6 G$ in 2000 to more than 20 G$ by the end of 2024. Along the way, both partners have indicated that the JV is a prized asset. So why now is
Jun 13, 20251 min read


What does the delayed Dow project in Alberta tell us about the state of the chemicals industry?
A project executive would rather eat a bag of rusty nails than announce a delay of a multi-billion-dollar mega-project. However, that is what was announced by Dowâs CEO last week as part of the Q1 earnings call. Reason provided was to preserve cash. Along with the project delay, Dow announced an initiative to save cash cost amounting to 300 M$/y in 2025 and an additional 700 M$/y in 2026. A day later, LyondellBasell announced weak Q1 earnings along with its own Cash Improveme
Jun 13, 20252 min read


Will Chinese tariffs affect the US Polypropylene (PP) resin production rates?
Short Answer: Not directly and not by much Long Story: Unlike polyethylene that trades globally, American made PP tends to trade regionally with 2/3 of US exports going to either Mexico (~ 1 Mta) or Canada (~ 0.5 Mta). China, by contrast, imports only ~ 0.07 Mta of American made PP (Chart below). Therefore, a tariff war between the US and China does not have a material impact on US PP production rates. What about indirect impacts? If trade wars result in a global recession,
Jun 13, 20251 min read
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