Short Answer: Not directly and not by much Long Story: Unlike polyethylene that trades globally, American made PP tends to trade regionally with 2/3 of US exports going to either Mexico (~ 1 Mta) or Canada (~ 0.5 Mta). China, by contrast, imports only ~ 0.07 Mta of American made PP (Chart below). Therefore, a tariff war between the US and China does not have a material impact on US PP production rates. What about indirect impacts? If trade wars result in a global recession,

Short Answer: NO Long Story: In spite of the announced tariffs and counter-tariffs, North American polyethylene resin producers still enjoy enough of a feedstock advantage (ethane cracking advantage vs naphtha cracking) to be able to run full and export to the world their production that is in excess of domestic demand. With what is announced to date, only China is becoming cost prohibitive (after tariffs) for the US exporters. However, US exports to China account for (only)